Keywords
trade, forest-risk commodities, deforestation, evidence synthesis
This article is included in the Sustainable Food Systems gateway.
This article is included in the N8 AgriFood collection.
trade, forest-risk commodities, deforestation, evidence synthesis
Global deforestation is largely driven by land use change for agricultural commodity production (Curtis et al., 2018). Combined with shifting agriculture and forestry (timber production), these drivers are estimated to be responsible for 77% of forest loss worldwide. The majority of new land for agriculture historically comes from conversion of intact, tropical forests and an estimated 129 million hectares of forest was lost worldwide between 1990–2015 (FAO, 2015). Although the rate of global forest loss has slowed and tree cover has increased in recent decades, changes are unevenly distributed with large losses still occurring in tropical regions (Song et al., 2018). Expanding agricultural frontiers are the primary driver of tropical deforestation (Curtis et al., 2018; Gibbs et al., 2010) with over 64 million hectares of primary tropical forest estimated to have been lost between 2002–2020 (GFW, 2021). Tropical deforestation is also one of the largest sources of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions (Smith et al., 2014) and is a major driver of biodiversity loss, with agriculture threatening a large majority of species identified as at risk of extinction (Benton et al., 2021; IUCN, 2021). Furthermore, it is likely to substantially impair ecosystem function and services, with direct consequences for people’s livelihoods and hindering our ability to achieve multiple sustainable development goals (IPBES, 2019).
Tropical deforestation is increasingly driven by international demand for agricultural commodities (Defries et al., 2010; Henders et al., 2015). The impacts of production which are embodied in exports have increased rapidly as trade becomes more globalised (Henders et al., 2015), with assessment of impacts being increasingly difficult due to geographic separation of consumption and production locations (Meyfroidt et al., 2013). Furthermore, as global populations increase (UN, 2019) and climate change results in a reduction of global yields for major crops (Zhao et al., 2017), it is likely that cropland will continue to expand to meet an increasing demand for food (Delzeit et al., 2017). A shift in demand for products that are more land intensive to produce, such as meat and dairy, are also likely to occur alongside increasing demand (Godfray et al., 2010), and reducing this demand will be key for meeting sustainable diets (Willett et al., 2019).
Despite shifting global demands, only a small handful of commodities are responsible for a large proportion of tropical deforestation and associated emissions (Henders et al., 2015). The production of four commodities; beef, soybeans, palm oil, and wood products contribute to around 40% of total tropical deforestation. These ‘forest-risk’ commodities are defined as “globally traded goods and raw materials that originate from tropical forest ecosystems, either directly from forest areas, or from areas previously under forest cover whose extraction or production contributes significantly to global tropical deforestation and degradation” (Rautner et al., 2013). Globalisation has resulted in a growing proportion of impacts being embodied in exports, with between 29–39% of deforestation-related emissions being driven by international trade (Pendrill et al., 2019a).
The increasing role that global consumers play in driving tropical deforestation has led to many countries recognising the need for demand-side policies to improve supply chain sustainability. Arguably, however, it was the private sector who made the first widespread commitments to addressing the deforestation activity embodied in supply chains, with the Consumer Goods Forum (comprised mainly of a group of large, international consumer goods and retail companies) making a commitment in 2010 (CGF, 2017). Corporate commitments were bolstered within the UN Declaration on Forests, signed in 2014 as a non-legally binding political declaration from governments, companies, and civil society to cut natural forest loss by half by 2020, and altogether by 2030 (UN, 2014). Several European countries, including the UK, quickly sought to strengthen commitments via the Amsterdam Declaration towards eliminating deforestation from agricultural commodity chains (ADP, 2018).
However, despite these corporate commitments, underpinned by government support (including the establishment of roundtables focused on monitoring specific deforestation risk commodities e.g., soy and palm oil in the UK; Efeca, 2020a; Efeca, 2020b) the rate of global commodity-driven deforestation has shown little sign of decline (Curtis et al., 2018). In response, the UK Government, in 2019 established the Global Resource Initiative (GRI), which made a series of recommendations designed to tackle UK-linked and global commodity-driven deforestation (GRI, 2020). In the run up to hosting the 26th UN Climate change Conference of the Parties in 2021 (COP26), the UK government has also emphasised the importance of addressing deforestation and associated emissions driven by global agricultural commodity trade (Sharma, 2021).
The UK is one of the world’s major economies, and whilst there are individual countries with a larger volume of imports, it is known to be importing significant quantities of commodities produced by commercial agriculture, which – as above - is linked to deforestation. The introduction of regulatory proposals in the form of due diligence legislation – a response to GRI recommendations (GRI, 2020; Goldsmith & Callanan, 2020) – acknowledges the role of the UK in the global deforestation problem and aims at helping to improve the sustainability of forest risk commodities. However, the consultation around the introduction of this legislation (DEFRA, 2020) has largely focused on relatively few commodities, including beef and leather, cocoa, palm oil, rubber, and soy. Therefore, it is important to assess the evidence base for the identification of these commodities and an ongoing assessment of all forest risk commodities (i.e., not just those which garner most attention) is likely to be necessary, as addressing demand for these products will be critical for succeeding in slowing the rate of global deforestation.
This study conducts a rapid systematic literature review across studies which quantify the impact of agricultural commodities traded by the UK. This is to identify the commodities which pose the greatest risk to forests and associated relevant environmental impacts such as carbon emissions and biodiversity, and to examine the evidence base for the key commodities that should be considered in the UK’s risk assessment and policy responses. A systematic review is defined as “a review in which there is a comprehensive search for relevant studies on a specific topic, and those identified are then appraised and synthesised according to a predetermined and explicit method” (Klassen et al., 1998). Systematic reviews have the advantage of minimising bias by ensuring careful a priori planning, including the development of a review protocol which establishes the pre-specification of criteria of studies to be included or excluded, methods to be followed and how outcomes will be synthesised (Cook et al., 1997). A review of this type is therefore used here to critically appraise existing identified forest risk commodities. This study also examines the evidence base, methods, and data behind the studies identified, to further investigate remaining uncertainties around quantification of trade-driven deforestation impacts. Due to time limitations, this systematic review was conducted as a rapid evidence synthesis, therefore at times deviates from standard review practise.
The systematic review process is typically split into eight stages. Firstly, an initial research question was defined on the subject of ‘What are the high-risk commodities based on sustainability assessment impacts?’. This was further refined to specifically examine agricultural commodities, with a focus on studies examining tropical deforestation and associated impacts, given the current relevance of this lens to UK policy.
The second stage was to develop a review protocol (Molotoks & West, 2021; Appendix A). Development of the systematic review protocol was based on a template following PRISMA-P guidelines where applicable. This pre-specified the questions to be addressed and the specific objectives of the review. These objectives include:
(a) To clarify what literature and evidence is available around UK consumption activities driving deforestation and associated impacts in producer countries.
(b) To identify key commodities which have a high deforestation risk.
(c) To suggest policy interventions which could simultaneously reduce negative impacts of commodity production and trade, whilst promoting sustainable livelihoods of local communities.
A comprehensive search strategy was developed as part of the review protocol which included text word searching in key fields including the title and abstract of selected terms and use of search filters across three databases: Google Scholar, Web of Science, and Scopus. These databases were chosen due to being widely used and their relevance to the topic. Furthermore, the inclusion of Google Scholar allowed for grey literature to also be included in results. Search terms were as follows:
"deforestation risk commodities" OR "deforestation risk commodity" OR "forest risk commodities" OR "forest risk commodity" OR "commodity driven deforestation"
AND "United Kingdom" OR "British" OR "UK"
AND "supply chain".
Exclusion criteria included restrictions on language and publication period, therefore filters used included studies written in the English language and those published in the past 20 years. This returned 318 results and was conducted in October 2020, hence any studies published after this period are not included in the review. Results from all databases were checked for duplicates and due to the high number of duplicates from Google Scholar, which were identified manually through use of the reference managing software Mendeley (Version 1.19.8), only the first 150 results were included, resulting in a total of 232 results. Reference-checking the final systematically reviewed papers was also completed in order to reduce the risk of missing information, which was carried out by manually screening the reference lists. Relevant grey literature was included in the search through use of Google Scholar, as well as incorporation of grey literature already known to the authors that met the review protocol criteria.
The fourth stage was to assess the eligibility of the studies identified from the search strategy using the predefined inclusion and exclusion criteria from the review protocol (Molotoks & West, 2021; Appendix A). For example, studies which didn’t link commodity consumption to impacts, or that weren’t applied or lacked the ability to be applied to the UK were excluded. Identification of relevant studies, including both peer reviewed articles and grey literature occurred in two separate sifts; the first extracted studies based on their title and abstract. A second sift then extracted studies based on the full text. Studies were then examined manually for duplicates which were removed, leaving the remaining selected studies.
Once the final studies had been selected, data was then extracted, checked, and verified against Population, Intervention, Comparison, Outcome, Study design (PICOS) criteria and summary information extracted into a table (Stage 5). The PICOS format is a widely recognised strategy for framing a research question and facilitating the identification of relevant information, setting specific criteria for inclusion within the final selection of studies (Sackett et al., 1997). For example, the ‘population’ criteria related to the target group assessed within the analysis in this case this was the UK, hence studies not specifically examining UK consumption or containing data which could be linked or applied to the UK were excluded. One of the PICOS criteria (comparison) was not applicable to this evidence synthesis as no comparisons between different groups were planned in the review protocol (Molotoks & West, 2021; Appendix A).
Information manually extracted from the literature into a spreadsheet using Microsoft Excel 2016 software included the terminology of footprint indicators used, methodology, data inputs, study area, commodities assessed, the time period of the study, and any policy recommendations made. The final selected studies were also grouped according to the region they cover and the commodity they examine. This data on country and commodity context was also extracted from studies from the first screening to demonstrate which commodities, though not specifically linked to UK trade, had been studied most extensively (see results section 3.1). The final stage before synthesising (Stage 7) and disseminating results (Stage 8) was to assess the quality and validity of the included studies (Stage 6). Literature was assessed using quality assessment questions regarding their evidence base using the pre-defined method from the review protocol to reduce bias and assess certainty in the results for addressing the objective of this study. These included answering three questions as to whether there is (a) evidence of causation, (b) outcome measures, and (c) selective reporting (Molotoks & West, 2021; Appendix A). Due to the rapid nature of the review, only one reviewer conducted the search strategy, data extraction, and quality assessment. This is recognised as a limitation of rapid evidence synthesis and the pre-development of the review protocol was designed to eliminate potential bias of this methodology. No effect measures were used, and no meta-analysis was performed due to the timeframe constraints.
For the synthesis, a narrative of final selected studies was conducted around data inputs used, methodologies and use of trade models, time frames of studies and any themes of policy recommendations made (see results section 3.2). An overview of the countries and commodities covered is also presented. Furthermore, quantitative results are presented from one study identified as employing the most robust methodologies (see results section 3.3), to demonstrate the type of data available and indicate which commodities associated with UK trade have the highest overseas footprints, independent of whether they are covered in any detail in other studies that were selected via this rapid evidence review.
Of the 318 results returned, 17 studies were included in the final selection process after removal of duplicates, irrelevant, and inaccessible studies (Figure 1). Duplicates were firstly removed from within each individual database used. Following this, the first sift extracted studies based on their title and abstract (n=152 including duplicates between different databases). A second sift then extracted studies based on the full text (n=26). Studies were then examined for duplicates between different databases and nine were removed, leaving 17 remaining studies. See Figure 1 for a flow chart summarising the full search and selection process. The risk of bias due to missing results is recognised.
Results presented include a summary of countries and commodities studied from the first screening (Section 3.1), a narrative synthesis of the final selected studies (Section 3.2) and presentation of UK specific results from the study using the most robust methodologies (Section 3.3). For a full list of characteristics of each included study, please see Molotoks & West, 2021; Appendix B.
The most common commodity and study area examined exclusively by studies was Brazilian soy, followed by Brazilian beef, and Indonesian palm oil (Figure 2). Cocoa was the most commonly studied commodity in Africa, whereas palm oil was the most frequent in Asia and soy in South America. Commodities covered in studies looking at more than one geographical context included soy, palm oil, and rubber.

In the studies selected after the second screening, a more detailed assessment of commodities covered was conducted. The most common commodity and study area examined exclusively was also Brazilian soy (Figure 3). Other Latin American countries commonly presented in results included Argentina, Bolivia, Colombia, and Paraguay. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Papua New Guinea were also frequently mentioned. After soy, beef, palm oil, and timber were the most common commodities studied exclusively (Figure 3). Other tropical deforestation risk commodities include pulp and paper, leather, rubber, cocoa and coffee.

PNG = Papua New Guinea.
Land use data. There were over ten different types of footprint indicators used by the 17 selected studies, including deforestation, ecological, biodiversity, carbon, emissions, and harvest footprints (Molotoks & West, 2021; Appendix B). These were identified by searching for the term ‘footprint’ in each of the selected studies. ‘Land footprint’, ‘land use footprint’ and ‘consumption footprint’ were the most commonly used terminologies. However, in addition to the different indicators representing different aspects of environmental impacts, precise methodology definitions varied between studies and the underlying data between studies also differed. Therefore, similar terminology could represent very different types of environmental impacts. For example, in the global studies synthesised, Hansen et al. (2013) is the most commonly used spatial dataset for representing forest loss, either solely (Pendrill et al., 2019a; Pendrill et al., 2019b) or in combination with national datasets for certain contexts (Persson et al., 2014; Henders et al., 2015). Specific commodity country contexts, however, often use nationally specific remote sensing datasets exclusively for their land cover inputs (zu Ermgassen et al., 2020; Escobar et al., 2020; Godar et al., 2016; Green et al., 2019; Trase, 2018; Walker et al., 2013).
One study uses a combination of spatial and statistical data to estimate relative deforestation risks of each country, using Hansen data on extent of tree loss from the Global Forest Watch data portal in combination with data from the Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) on deforestation rates (WWF, 2020). This approach prevents larger countries scoring a higher risk solely based on total land area, as the second dataset accounts for countries losing a large proportion of their small remaining forest cover. Several studies used a combination of different sources of remote sensing spatial data alongside a synthesis of national and international statistical data (Henders et al., 2015; Persson et al., 2014). For studies which did not use spatially explicit methods, data from the Food and Agricultural Organisation Corporate Statistical Database (FAOSTAT) was often used to provide national agricultural land use and production statistics (Niu et al., 2020; Rautner et al., 2013; Sandström et al., 2018). Use of national statistics for the consumption of commodities already defined as ‘forest-risk’ were also sometimes used as a proxy for deforestation impacts (Rautner et al., 2013; Walker et al., 2013; Zhang et al., 2020).
Trade data and methodologies. A variety of trade databases were also used to connect production to imports or consumption activities. For example, the Eora Multiregional Input-Output (MRIO) database (Niu et al., 2020; Zhang et al., 2020), the UN Comtrade database (Rautner et al., 2013; WWF, 2020), and the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) MRIO database (Green et al., 2019). Trade models based on FAOSTAT data were also commonly used (Henders et al., 2015; Persson et al., 2014; Pendrill et al., 2019a; Pendrill et al., 2019b; Sandström et al., 2018; Trase, 2018). Two studies used a combination of two databases: UN Comtrade and (a) FAOSTAT data (Godar et al., 2016), or (b) national statistics on trade of specific commodities (Walker et al., 2013). Furthermore, one study also compares two databases separately, FAOSTAT and EXIOBASE to provide an inter-comparison (Pendrill et al., 2019a).
At the time of review, there was only one study which conducted a global analysis on a large number of specific commodities which linked embodied deforestation results to UK trade (Pendrill et al., 2019b). Other studies focussed on emissions associated with land use change (Niu et al., 2020; Pendrill et al., 2019a) or only examined a small handful of forest risk commodities (Godar et al., 2016; Henders et al., 2015; Persson et al., 2014; Rautner et al., 2013; WWF, 2020). Sandström et al. (2018) only focuses on certain sectors, with all other studies focusing on a single commodity. Pendrill et al. (2019b) is a recent study that uses a combined approach of utilising modelling based on FAOSTAT data in combination with the latest remote sensing data. Given its global coverage and specific deforestation focus that comprehensively covers all crop production, we present UK specific results from this particular study in section 3.3.
Timeframes. Global studies are often reliant on data which does not reflect present circumstances due to difficulties in accessing up to date data. This is particularly the case for global land use data, with Hansen et al. (2013) being the most commonly used data on forest loss (Henders et al., 2015; Persson et al., 2014; Pendrill et al., 2019b; WWF, 2020) providing annual statistics from 2001- 2019. National land use datasets are also often updated annually e.g., the National Institute for Space Research (INPE) and the Image Processing and Geographic Information System (GIS) Laboratory (LAPIG) for which Godar et al. (2016) uses data from 2015. However, even recent studies base analyses on data which are over a decade old e.g., 2002–2011 (Sandström et al., 2018). For trade data, the majority of studies use FAOSTAT which also provides frequent, often annual, updates on trade statistics. Other sources such as the UN Comtrade database are also frequently updated with studies using various time periods, for example 2011-2018 (WWF, 2020) or 2011 (Rautner et al., 2013; Walker et al., 2013), or used to check consistency of other datasets (Escobar et al., 2020). Studies using MRIO trade models also vary in terms of the time stamp of trade data used, using data from ten years (Green et al., 2019), five years (Pendrill et al., 2019a; Zhang et al., 2020) or four years (Niu et al., 2020) prior to their publication.
Policy recommendations. Despite differences in the underpinning data, methodology and time frame of studies, consistent themes emerge from the reviewed studies around the need for international cooperation for addressing the challenges of promoting sustainable supply chains. It is important to holistically consider the trade-offs between food production and environmental sustainability (Niu et al., 2020) and align monitoring between countries (Efeca, 2019). Monitoring indirect suppliers is also critical for progress towards promoting sustainable supply chains (zu Ermgassen et al., 2020; Trase, 2018; Walker et al., 2013) and applying extensions to cover more stages along the supply chains such as re-exports (Escobar et al., 2020) is also recommended. Broader policy agendas are also recognised as necessary for identifying synergies with policies beyond supply chains e.g., food security, conservation, national economic development and local/traditional knowledge (Godar et al., 2016).
Policy recommendations from studies acknowledge the need for a combination of demand and supply side measures (Henders et al., 2015) and extending supply chain governance beyond biomes of production (zu Ermgassen et al., 2020). A focus on export markets alone will not adequately address deforestation associated with commodities (zu Ermgassen et al., 2020) and bilateral agreements between tropical forest countries are essential for avoiding leakage (Rautner et al., 2013), for example, to countries without REDD+ policies (Green et al., 2019; Henders et al., 2015). Differentiation between emissions from consumption and production related activities could also avoid leakage (Loeff et al., 2018). Emissions are often concentrated in comparatively few trade flows, which suggests effective efforts to reduce deforestation in supply chains should target specific trade relationships and commodities e.g., through use of carbon taxes on food products (Pendrill et al., 2019a). This means increased transparency is also necessary (Trase, 2018). Incentives for facilitating uptake and use of transparency information are needed (Godar et al., 2016), with transparency and corporate disclosure also needing to be incentivised, for example through differential import tariffs and guarantees (Rautner et al., 2013).
One study gives specific recommendations for UK policy, encouraging mandatory due diligence obligations and legally binding targets for reducing environmental footprints (WWF, 2020), for example, by moving from zero net to zero-absolute deforestation or by introducing annual targets for reducing deforestation (Trase, 2018). Many studies also encourage wider stakeholder engagement (WWF, 2020) and collective action through the establishment of multi-stakeholder partnerships (Green et al., 2019; Walker et al., 2013). Other suggestions include implementation of biome or landscape level mechanisms (Escobar et al., 2020; Green et al., 2019), independent auditing systems (Walker et al., 2013) and improved certification schemes (Rautner et al., 2013). Broader implementation strategies, such as enforcement of public and private sector initiatives and commitments (Rautner et al., 2013), to avoid undue burdens on producers (Trase, 2018) are also recommended. Consumer policy is only mentioned by a few studies with the recommendation of changing consumption patterns (Niu et al., 2020) to reduce consumption of animal products (WWF, 2020), in particular, beef (Sandström et al., 2018).
Data was extracted from the publicly available Pendrill et al., 2020 dataset which is based on the Pendrill et al. (2019b) study. According to this study, the highest risk commodities in terms of deforestation risk for the UK are palm oil, beef, wood products, soy, cocoa, and coffee (Table 1), collectively contributing to over 89% of the UK’s overseas deforestation risk (Pendrill et al., 2020). It is also worth noting that there are other less well-recognised commodities such as sugar and spices represented in the top ten commodities imported by the UK with the highest deforestation risk by this data (Table 1).
Figure 4 shows the country commodity contexts with the highest deforestation risk associated with UK trade. The associated carbon emissions (including peat emissions) from UK imports are also shown (Pendrill et al., 2020). Results illustrate that a high proportion of tropical deforestation associated with UK imports can be attributed to just a few commodities and producer countries. Three contexts alone, Indonesian palm oil, Brazilian beef, and Brazilian soy, are estimated to amount to almost half the total UK deforestation footprint (Figure 4). These same contexts are also identified previously as those that have been most exclusively researched (Figure 2 and Figure 3).

For each of the top six commodities (Table 1), the majority of their deforestation risk (over 75%) is concentrated in just three countries ( Figure 5 and Figure 6)


PNG = Papua New Guinea, DRC= Democratic Republic of the Congo.
It is important to note that other countries also contribute to each commodity’s deforestation risk but are not shown in Figure 5 as they constitute a relatively small proportion to overall risk. This is demonstrated in Figure 6 where the total from all other countries shows a relatively small contribution to each commodities deforestation risk. Furthermore, it is also important to note this study only covers commodities associated with tropical deforestation, hence there is a risk of bias.
The data from Pendrill et al. (2019b) presented in section 3.3 illustrates the type of information that ‘state of the art’ methods for attributing global deforestation risk (and associated emissions) to traded commodities provide. Although this is not a definitive source, it is one of the most comprehensive, up to date, analyses linking UK trade to specific commodities and their environmental impacts in terms of deforestation risk. However, as with any assessments that attempt to link the impacts of production to international supply chains, there are a few caveats and limitations. The Pendrill et al. (2019b) data only covers tropical and sub-tropical commodities. Furthermore, timber as represented in this dataset only includes timber plantations, a limitation other studies also face (Zhang et al., 2020), as opposed to extraction from primary forest, hence these are potential data gaps. This gap is partially filled by a more recent study which has been published since this review was conducted (Hoang & Kanemoto, 2021). This study also uses Hansen et al. (2013) as well as differentiating between tropical forests from plantations. However, it does not provide commodity-specific deforestation footprints.
The use of different forest datasets will also result in different outcomes depending on the methodology used. Pendrill et al. (2019b), like many studies, uses Hansen et al. (2013) which is one of the main sources for tree loss data. The other main source of deforestation data comes from the Global Forest Resources Assessment, which uses statistics from the UN Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO). A detailed study comparing these methods found estimates of deforestation rates lower using Hansen data due to the different definitions of deforestation applied (McNicol et al., 2018). Hansen data is based on tree cover, defined as over five metres tall, whilst FAO estimates are based on land use classifications and extrapolations of rates of change, which are a net change figure. The way Hansen defines tree cover as all vegetation over five metres in height gives higher estimates of tree cover (McNicol et al., 2018). However, its sensitivity for capturing smaller canopy disturbances can ultimately lead to an underestimation of deforestation rates driven by small-scale disturbances, particularly on local-regional scales (Milodowski et al., 2017).
There are therefore likely to be benefits of using nationally specific deforestation datasets as opposed to applying global datasets to national scales. This is particularly important for countries with large areas of forest cover and low levels of deforestation where small disturbances make up a large proportion of forest loss (Galiatsatos et al., 2020). Many of the studies that focus specifically on one country-commodity context use national datasets as these datasets may provide more granular and ultimately more accurate representations of forest cover. Although the Hansen dataset is 30m resolution, it is rescaled from a coarser 250m resolution which limits its applicability for detecting afforestation or degradation changes (Milodowski et al., 2017). Differences in definitions between global and national datasets as to what constitutes ‘forest’ can also result in differences, as found when PRODES data showed systematically lower rates of deforestation than Hansen, despite use of the same satellite data and mapping methods (Milodowski et al., 2017). However, use of national datasets inevitably makes inter-comparisons between different countries or regions more difficult. Using Hansen data on a national scale and suitably calibrating for percent tree cover using national datasets could provide a potential solution to harmonisation. Given that different thresholds will be necessary for providing the closest correspondence to different national forest cover statistics, this could prevent over or under estimation (Sannier et al., 2015; Galiatsatos et al., 2020). However, there is a need for more inter-comparisons of national and global datasets for assessing accuracy and increasing confidence in the data, with provision of confidence limits for data users being particularly important.
FAOSTAT data was used in the majority of studies, which is unsurprising given its position as the most detailed global dataset on agricultural commodity production and trade. However, the methodologies and criteria for data collation within FAOSTAT may vary in quality depending on the national reporting guidelines and capabilities. This is reflected in, for example, the mismatch between export and import reports which, when compiled into footprinting studies, require methodological choices to harmonise which may impact results. Any attempts to correct bilateral trade statistics for the ‘re-export’ of materials (as per Pendrill et al., 2019b) will also necessitate a modelling-based approach whose assumptions may vary with impact on the distribution of production impacts between production and consumption.
Several studies extend beyond the use of bilateral trade data and use multi-regional input-output approaches (MRIOs) to provide a ‘final consumption’ account. Of these, GTAP (Green et al., 2019), Eora (Niu et al., 2020; Zhang et al., 2020) and EXIOBASE (Pendrill et al., 2019a) MRIOs were used in the studies which were included after the second screening in our review. Choosing to apply an MRIO in combination with (Green et al., 2019; Niu et al., 2020; Zhang et al., 2020) or as an alternative to (Pendrill et al., 2019b) FAOSTAT can have a large impact on results. This is driven by a combination of the different perspective (i.e., true consumption vs trade) adopted by the inclusion of an MRIO method, and by differences in the underpinning data and the methods via which they are applied. As an example, a recently published (but currently un-peer reviewed) interim report compiling the UK deforestation footprint (Croft et al., 2021) used the same deforestation dataset as Pendrill et al. (2019a). The combination with a hybridised MRIO approach (similar to that applied in (Croft et al., 2018)), estimated ~20,000ha for UK total deforestation risk (Croft et al., 2021) compared to ~16,000ha for the Pendrill et al., 2019a account presented above (Figure 4). Such a different reflects the fact that a full consumption footprint encompasses indirect utilisation of commodities (e.g., in more complex products) which are not included to the same degree when only bilateral trade information is considered.
All MRIOs have their own strengths and weaknesses, which can dictate their choice in different applications. However, deforestation footprints and associated emissions will vary according to the MRIO used due to differences in geographic and temporal resolution, time lags, country and sectoral representation, and methods used to harmonise the statistics they contain (Giljum et al., 2019). There are limited comparisons between MRIOs to understand how differences affects results, therefore methodological development and alignment between global MRIOs is an important research priority. There is also a need for more detailed data on specific locations of risk, especially for countries with high deforestation rates (Pendrill et al., 2019a), as international supply chain assessment will lack specific supply chain detail. There are approaches which attempt to give this detail; for example, the Transparency for Sustainable Economies (Trase) initiative (http://www.trase.earth). This approach is used in several of the studies in this review (zu Ermgassen et al., 2020; Escobar et al., 2020; Trase, 2018) and uses publicly available data to link imports of consumer countries to subnational places of production. More detailed, sub-national assessments are not possible internationally at this time, however, and efforts to improve data availability and target other interventions for risk-mitigation first requires an understanding of the likely hotspots (Figure 5, Figure 6).
The hotspots i.e., the main deforestation risk commodities analysed within papers comprising this synthesis, and the results presented from Pendrill et al., 2019a are a good match with current UK policy-linked dialogue. The commodities mentioned in the UK’s due diligence consultation (DEFRA, 2020), for example, include beef and leather, cocoa, palm oil, rubber, and soy. The main commodities illustrated here that have the highest deforestation risk yet are not included in the DEFRA consultation list are wood products and coffee (Table 1). Timber and pulp and paper are mentioned briefly in introductory materials, despite not appearing in the list of included commodities for questions set within the due diligence consultation, but it is worth noting there are already due diligence requirements on timber imports (OPSS, 2014). However, these highest risk commodities are not considered equally across the reviewed literature, with coffee and cocoa having significantly less dedicated studies, for example (Figure 2 and Figure 3). Whilst not mentioned in the UK due diligence consultation, certain spices such as nutmeg, pepper, and sugar are also listed as being in the top ten forest risk commodities imported by the UK (Table 1) with major producer countries being Indonesia, Vietnam, and Belize respectively (Pendrill et al., 2020). This is despite having a higher estimated deforestation risk than some commodities included in the consultation, for example rubber. No studies in our rapid review specifically covered these emerging commodities as deforestation risk commodities linked to the UK (Figure 2 and Figure 3). There is therefore a potential gap related to the inclusion of less well-known commodities, shown in recent research to have a deforestation risk associated with UK imports, in terms of their scientific and policy coverage.
This point about the balance of coverage in the literature and policy documentation and identified forest-risk commodities within emerging recent analysis is an important consideration. There may be commodities which are less extensively studied for reasons of data availability or scientific capacity which have a relatively high deforestation footprint. Furthermore, the inclusion of certain commodities but not others in policy materials could bias efforts towards certain areas at the expense of others. Brazilian soy for example was the most commonly studied commodity in our review (Figure 2), likely in part due to data availability and a recognised historical link between its production and impacts on critical biomes such as the Amazon rainforest (Fearnside, 2001). There is no doubt that Brazilian soy is a critical deforestation-risk commodity, and the presence of lesser-studied commodities in deforestation footprints should not distract from attention on this and the landscapes where it is a threat. However, additional attention on other commodities that are less commonly studied is warranted, particularly to avoid these being associated with deforestation frontiers in future (Table 1).
It is particularly important to keep commodities listed as being a deforestation risk in legislation under review as, should reducing deforestation associated with one commodity be successful, there is a risk of deforestation being displaced to others via leakage effects (Meyfroidt et al., 2013). Quite a few of the studies mention the issue of leakage and the importance of avoiding impacts of commodity production simply moving to a different area, which is only likely to be minimized by wider adoption and enforcement of zero-deforestation commitments (Garrett et al., 2019). The impacts of climate change may also contribute to changing crop yields and shifting areas of cultivation in future. Although negative impacts of climate change on major crops are well recognised (Zhao et al., 2017), particularly in high and low latitudes, uncertainty remains for the impact of climate change on crop yields in mid-latitude regions (Rosenzweig et al., 2014). Climate change impacts are likely to be most severe in the tropics where the majority of global commodity-driven deforestation is also concentrated (Curtis et al., 2018). Uncertainties in future projections are also more severe for certain agricultural commodities such as soy, which have more concentrated production areas, increasing sensitivity to regional differences in model projections. Furthermore, depending on the model and scenario used, impacts of future cropland expansion can vary considerably (Molotoks et al., 2020). Predicting future hotspots of commodity-driven deforestation is therefore difficult and subject to variations in model structures and assumptions, underpinning a necessity for policy, which can respond to ‘early warning’, signs of deforestation occurring in new areas should these emerge in response to changing climate.
Recommendations for policy drawn from the synthesised literature include a need for international collaboration between producer and consumer countries, multi-stakeholder engagement, and increased transparency of supply chains to address deforestation footprints. For the country-commodity contexts with the highest deforestation risks, Brazilian soy and beef, and Indonesian palm oil (Figure 6), forest and commodity-based exports are often particularly important for economic development. Hence there is a strong trade-off between development and environmental sustainability which makes working closely with these countries to support forest-risk commodity producers particularly important (Bager et al., 2021). There is also often a trade-off between political feasibility and impact on reducing deforestation footprints. Policy options which are more feasible to implement tend to have a weaker theory of change and, in light of voluntary commitments being relatively ineffective (Garrett et al., 2019), multiple policy levers are likely to be required.
Voluntary certification programmes have been the focus of previous initiatives to reduce deforestation, however, these schemes only cover a small share of the global market (Garrett et al., 2019). They also place the burden for proving compliance on producers and changing policies or inconsistent enforcement can affect the ability of companies to implement commitments. Adoption of zero-deforestation certifications is very low for soy (Garrett et al., 2019) and certified production only covers a small proportion of conventional production of major forest-risk commodities (van der Ven et al., 2018). Furthermore, there has been a lack of success in halting land use change patterns through certification schemes, partly due to lack of uptake, but also due to regulatory loopholes and lack of enforcement (van der Ven et al., 2018). There is also a major gap in commitments around beef production, with indirect suppliers not considered, hence there has been very little impact on reducing deforestation in this sector (Alix-Garcia & Gibbs, 2017)
Other supply-side commitments have been more successful. For example, the soy moratorium has been evaluated by recent reports to confirm their effectiveness due to a combination of multi-stakeholder action enforced through strict accountability (Gibbs et al., 2015). However, studies included in this rapid review have stressed that a combined approach of both demand and supply side policies will be essential for effective reduction in commodity-driven deforestation. Policies to prevent deforestation therefore also need measures that target consumers, hence demand-side measures which target lifestyle changes can also encourage deforestation-free production along supply chains (Henders et al., 2018). Reducing meat consumption, in particular beef, can effectively reduce deforestation and associated emissions (Sandström et al., 2018). By reducing demand for beef, it is possible to reduce emissions related to feed production, particularly soy, which is often embedded within animal products consumed in the EU. As per the recommendations of the UK’s Global Resource Initiative, policy makers should therefore carefully consider the potential to introduce demand-linked measures (such as the promotion of lifestyle changes) in addition to the measures focusing on supply chain actors placing forest-risk commodities on the market (GRI, 2020).
Provision of economic incentives is one option for shifting the demand for forest-risk commodity consumption, however carbon taxation of food for example has shown to be relatively ineffective at affecting consumption (Bager et al., 2021). This approach is more likely to be effective if levied on supply-chain actors where economic incentives are stronger for shifting consumption patterns. However, for this to be effective in reducing deforestation risk, emissions should be differentiated relative to contributions to deforestation. Economic incentives are also mentioned in studies included in this review as likely being necessary to promote increased supply chain transparency (Godar et al., 2016; Trase, 2018). Furthermore, there have recently been calls from 22 major companies, supported by the Sustainable Trade Initiative UK, for provision of additional measures, including reporting guidelines, sector specific requirements, and incentive-based approaches alongside due diligence legislation (IDH, 2020). This suggests that, despite mandatory due diligence for supply chain actors being effective in reducing imported deforestation and relatively implementable (Bager et al., 2021), the UK due diligence does not go far enough. Therefore, strengthening this legislation and applying other measures are likely to be required to overcome feasibility barriers that due diligence alone faces, such as jurisdictional approaches and wider stakeholder engagement (von Essen & Lambin, 2021).
There is a good evidence base for the inclusion of the forest risk commodities that are explicitly covered in the UK due diligence legislation. The commodities with the highest deforestation risk, particularly soy, palm oil and beef, are well recognised in the literature, with a large coverage by studies included in this review. However, there is not equal coverage of all deforestation risk commodities, with coffee and cocoa being particularly less extensively studied in studies relevant to our rapid review. There are also gaps in the literature on less well-known commodities such as sugar and other spices, which represent a relatively large deforestation risk embodied within UK imports. These commodities are also not recognised explicitly in the UK due diligence consultation. It is therefore recommended that the scope of commodities listed in UK policy communications are both broadened and kept under continuous review both within the ongoing development of due diligence policy, but also within the portfolio of additional measures that will likely be needed to address the UK’s deforestation footprint and deforestation in critical landscapes more generally.
Furthermore, importantly, more work needs to be done to understand the uncertainties and differences between results from global studies to inform national policies, and to improve coordination between economic sectors that may be driving deforestation. Expanding research to cover commodities that are less extensively studied is also important to prevent bias, avoid leakage, and to prevent emergent deforestation frontiers. Although global studies are important for identifying hotspots of deforestation risk and guiding designation of priority areas, they are also limited in terms of their granularity and ability to inform policy effectively. Hence, integration of sub-national data, particularly for trade flows, which account for large proportions of deforestation risk, is necessary for a more in-depth understanding of where impacts are occurring, which commodities are driving deforestation and what policies are needed to address them.
Zenodo. Which forest-risk commodities imported to the UK have the highest overseas impacts? A rapid evidence synthesis systematic review. DOI 10.5281/zenodo.5227100
This project contains the following underlying data:
Appendix A: Original review protocol
Appendix B: Data extraction table.
Data are available under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license (CC-BY 4.0).
Gavin Stewart and Jonathan Green are also acknowledged for their input in developing the initial review protocol, Mark Reed for feedback on the paper draft and the N8 AgriFood Programme for provision of training and guidance around conducting rapid evidence syntheses.
Is the topic of the review discussed comprehensively in the context of the current literature?
Yes
Are all factual statements correct and adequately supported by citations?
Yes
Is the review written in accessible language?
Yes
Are the conclusions drawn appropriate in the context of the current research literature?
Yes
Is the argument information presented in such a way that it can be understood by a non-academic audience?
Yes
Does the piece present solutions to actual real world challenges?
Yes
Is real-world evidence provided to support any conclusions made?
Yes
Could any solutions being offered be effectively implemented in practice?
Yes
Competing Interests: No competing interests were disclosed.
Reviewer Expertise: I am not an expert in systematic review methods - it would be worth inviting someone to check this aspect of the study. My areas of research are around impacts of tropical commodity crops on deforestation and biodiversity, trade-modelling and spatial analyses.
Alongside their report, reviewers assign a status to the article:
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| Version 1 24 Sep 21 | read |
Provide sufficient details of any financial or non-financial competing interests to enable users to assess whether your comments might lead a reasonable person to question your impartiality. Consider the following examples, but note that this is not an exhaustive list:
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